ARTBA sees growth for US transport construction

Steady growth in the US market for transport infrastructure construction in 2018. This prediction comes from a new report by the 920 American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA). The report suggests that the US  transportation infrastructure market will rebound slightly next year, following a 2.8% drop in 2017.

The total domestic transportation construction and related-market activity is forecast to reach US$255 billion in 2018. This represents an increase of 3.2% from the previous year, after adjusting for project costs and inflation. The 2017 construction market performance is expected to reach around $247.1 billion by the end of the year.

The 2017 market drop was largely driven by the overall national decline in state and local highway and bridge spending, which are expected to drop 6.4% and 7.7%, respectively.

ARTBA Chief Economist Dr Alison Premo Black shared the findings in her multimodal forecast during a webinar for analysts, investors, transportation construction market executives, and public officials. Although the overall US transportation infrastructure market will see modest growth in 2018, the situation will likely vary significantly by state and region, according to Black.  The market is forecast to grow in 20 states and Washington, DC, and slow in 23 states, with the remaining seven expected to be relatively flat.

The largest growth is anticipated in California, Florida, Hawaii, New York, Virginia and Washington. The association anticipates a slowdown in new work in Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Maryland, Nevada and Oklahoma. The Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa markets are anticipated to be steady. Federal highway funding of state DOT programmes provided by the 2015 FAST Act will continue to show inflationary growth in 2018, providing a degree of market stability in every state.

Dr Black notes that there have been significant increases in state and local revenues for transportation purposes in a number of states over the past several years. However, she explains that some of that revenue is dedicated to debt reduction or has been delayed from reaching the transportation market due to state budget issues. These factors, combined with receding state markets due to completion of bond programmes or declining or inflation-eroded state revenues, continue to cause a drag on the overall US transportation infrastructure market.

The real value of public highway, street and related work by state DOTs and local governments, the largest market sector, is expected to increase a modest 2.4% in 2018 to $58.1 billion after falling 6.4% to $56.8 billion in 2017. Six highway-related public-private partnership (P3) projects came to financial close in 2017, totalling over $7.5 billion in investment. Work on private highways, bridges, parking lots and driveways will increase from $62.4 billion in 2017 to $63.3 billion in 2018, and will continue to grow in the next five years. With some major projects, such as the New NY Bridge and Ohio River Bridge reaching conclusion, the pace of bridge work has slowed. The public bridge and tunnel construction market is expected to increase slightly in 2018, to $31.3 billion. Work in 2017 is expected to be $30.5 billion, down from $33.1 billion in 2016.